Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the first specific metal or mineral officially requested, purchased, or prioritized for stockpiling by the U.S. government under the "Project Vault" initiative as announced on February 2, 2026.

Resolution will be based on official announcements from the White House, the Department of Commerce, or the Export-Import Bank (EXIM). If multiple minerals are included in an initial, simultaneous batch purchase announcement, the market will resolve to the mineral listed first in the official release. If the government does not designate a "first" request or if the program structure relies on manufacturer-led requests without a single official "first" metal, the market will resolve based on the first metal specifically named as an acquisition target in official government or program-affiliated documentation. If the outcome is ambiguous, the creator may resolve based on the clearest available evidence.

Background

Project Vault is a $12 billion public-private partnership, backed by $10 billion in EXIM financing and $2 billion in private capital, designed to establish a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve. Announced by President Trump on February 2, 2026, the initiative aims to reduce U.S. reliance on foreign supply chains—particularly those dominated by China—by stockpiling minerals essential for civilian industries like automotive, aerospace, and technology.

While the reserve is intended to cover many of the 60 minerals on the U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List, the program is unique because it is largely manufacturer-driven; participating companies submit lists of needed materials, which the reserve then acquires to provide supply-chain security and price stability. Because the program allows for a wide range of critical materials, this market may resolve N/A if it is determined that no single metal was officially "first" or if the initiative does not result in a clear, singular designation.

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