Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if the Wagerup gallium plant begins operations by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Alcoa Corporation or the joint venture partners (JAGA, US government, Australian government) confirming that the facility has produced its first gallium metal. The plant is expected to produce 100 metric tons of gallium annually once operational.

Background

Alcoa Corporation is developing a gallium plant at its Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, with support from the US and Australian governments and a joint venture between the Japanese Government and Sojitz Corporation. Gallium is naturally present in bauxite, the raw material used in alumina production, and can be extracted during the refining process. Gallium is a critical mineral essential to technology, especially the semiconductor industry and defense sectors. The Australian government has made a $307 million financial commitment to the project.

Considerations

The targeted schedule is extremely ambitious to the point of being unrealistic, though it matches the political deal's language that "new capacity to be made available in 2026". The project benefits from existing infrastructure at the Wagerup refinery, reducing typical construction timelines from five years to approximately two years. The public environmental approval process has not yet started, and construction across the state is facing delays.