U.S. PHEV sales exceed 18,430 units in September 2025?
3
1kṀ140
Nov 1
56%
chance
3

U.S. PHEV sales to exceed 18,430 units in September 2025 as reported by argone national lab

Resolution criteria

  • Yes if Argonne National Laboratory’s “Light-Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates” reports U.S. plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales for September 2025 strictly greater than 18,430; No otherwise. Use the first Argonne release that includes September 2025 (spreadsheet or page totals). Later revisions will not change resolution unless Argonne issues an explicit correction for September 2025. (anl.gov)

  • If Argonne has not published September 2025 data by December 31, 2025, resolve using the U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics Table 1-19 (which reproduces Argonne’s monthly PHEV totals). (bts.gov)

Background

  • Argonne’s monthly update is the standard reference for U.S. light‑duty EV sales; PEV totals combine BEVs and PHEVs, so use the PHEV line/column only. (anl.gov)

  • Recent context: June 2025 PHEV sales were 19,716 (PEV total 113,433; BEV 93,717), suggesting the 18,430 threshold is near recent monthly levels. (anl.gov)

  • November 2024 saw 23,513 PHEVs sold in the U.S., per Argonne figures summarized by the Joint Office. (driveelectric.gov)

Considerations

  • Argonne reports light‑duty vehicles (≤10,000 lb GVWR) and may issue minor revisions; this market resolves on the first official release unless a formal correction is posted. (anl.gov)

  • Traders should avoid confusing PHEV (plug‑in hybrids) with PEV/EV totals that include BEVs. (anl.gov)

    If it helps...

    • The manifoldbot Python package makes it easy to participate in markets like this one.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy