“Will South Africa collect an ad‑valorem export duty of ≥ 10 % on any chrome‑ore shipment before 31 Dec 2026?”

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before December 31, 2026, the South African government collects an ad valorem export duty of at least 10% on any chrome ore shipment. Verification will be based on official government publications or reputable news sources confirming the implementation and collection of such a tax. If no such tax is collected by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

In June 2025, the South African Cabinet approved measures to impose export controls on chrome ore, including the development of an export tax, as part of efforts to revitalize the declining ferrochrome industry. The Minerals Council South Africa has expressed concerns that such a tax could negatively impact chrome producers and lead to job losses. (reuters.com)

Considerations

While the government has approved the concept of a chrome ore export tax, the specific rate and implementation timeline have not been finalized. Stakeholder consultations and legislative processes may influence the final decision, potentially affecting the likelihood of the tax being collected before the end of 2026.