ICE + 1.075×HEV + 1.12×PHEV exceeds 1,198,000 in October 2025?
1
1kṀ22
Oct 31
50%
chance
  • Resolve YES if, for October 2025 U.S. light‑duty vehicle sales reported by Argonne, the quantity M = ICE + 1.075×HEV + 1.12×PHEV strictly exceeds 1,198,000; otherwise NO.

    Resolution criteria

    • Resolve YES if M > 1,198,000 for October 2025 U.S. light‑duty vehicle sales, where M = ICE + 1.075×HEV + 1.12×PHEV. Otherwise NO. Values must come from Argonne’s “Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates.” Use the month’s unadjusted sales (not SAAR). (anl.gov)

    • Definitions (per Argonne): HEV = non‑plug‑in hybrids; PHEV = plug‑in hybrids; BEV = battery EVs; FCEV = fuel‑cell EVs; “light‑duty” is Argonne’s ≤10,000‑lb GVWR category. ICE means conventional ICE vehicles, excluding HEV/PHEV/BEV/FCEV. If Argonne does not explicitly list ICE, compute ICE = LDV − HEV − PHEV − BEV − FCEV using Argonne’s totals. Compute M using Argonne’s integer counts and compare strictly to 1,198,000. (anl.gov)

    • Revisions: Resolve on the latest Argonne figures available 7 calendar days after Argonne first posts October 2025 data on the page above. If Argonne later revises again, no change to resolution. (anl.gov)

    Background

    • Argonne compiles monthly U.S. light‑duty sales by technology (HEV, PHEV, BEV; plus LDV total) using Wards as the reference source and publishes them on the page above; the same series is widely cited by government and industry. (anl.gov)

    • For context, Argonne‑sourced data show October 2024 totals of 1,325,263 LDV and 132,799 PEVs (BEV+PHEV). (driveelectric.gov)

    Considerations

    • Argonne occasionally revises monthly figures after initial publication; the 7‑day buffer above is intended to avoid late adjustments while keeping the criterion objective. (anl.gov)

    • Ensure the month is October 2025 sales (not registrations) and that all components (LDV, HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCEV) are taken from the same Argonne release to avoid mixing methodologies. (anl.gov)

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