Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if China's 70-city new home price index year-over-year change for January 2026 is greater than or equal to -2.0%. The market resolves NO if the index falls below -2.0% YoY. Resolution will be based on official data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, available at https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/ or through financial data aggregators like Trading Economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-index).

Background

China's new home prices across 70 cities dropped 2.5% year-on-year in August 2025, marking the 26th straight month of decline but the slowest pace since March 2024. The index remained at -2.20% in October. A Reuters poll conducted in late August to early September 2025 forecasts new-home prices to fall 3.8% in 2025 and a further 0.5% in 2026, suggesting prices may stabilize near the -2.0% threshold by January 2026.

Considerations

The -2.0% threshold is significant as it represents a potential inflection point in China's prolonged property downturn. Recent data shows the pace of decline has been moderating, with the index approaching this level. Government support measures and policy interventions aimed at stabilizing the market could influence whether prices stabilize above or fall below this threshold in January 2026.