Data from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=psr
Phoenix's 100th consecutive day of 100+F temperatures was September 3 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2024/09/03/phoenix-arizona-100-degree-weather/75063509007/
https://www.weather.gov/psr/ExtremeTemps says last day of year with a 100+ temp recorded so far is Oct 26. If consecutive days goes past 150, 150 will be judged.
I created this in part to see how the "experimental" numeric market type works, so I'm going to trade in it.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4,005 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,277 | |
| 3 | Ṁ256 | |
| 4 | Ṁ204 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
Phoenix meteorologist saying the streak is over https://x.com/AmberSullins/status/1836180739727200722 will wait for the day to show up at https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=psr presumably tomorrow to resolve, unless it has a big surprise.
https://x.com/NWSPhoenix/status/1836066968673382891
Forecast highs for today are 6-12 degrees below normal. Yes, you heard that right, BELOW NORMAL. Phoenix's streak of 100+ °F days is expected to finally come to an end today, a streak that has been going for 113 days (~3.5 months).
High was 102 today, streak up to 113, predicted to be broken (high under 100) tomorrow https://x.com/NWSPhoenix/status/1835850060061618371
Note the high yesterday (2024-09-15) according to https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=psr was 106F, like 6 degrees higher than hour by hour forecasts were showing. I'm not sure if this is typical, hopefully serious traders have investigated and are trading accordingly. Anyway the streak has reached 112 days. Will it continue today?
I've been trading in this question as I said I would in the description, however I won't trade after the data for a new day has been released at the URL above if it indicates the streak has been broken as that feels like cheating. Of course others are welcome to before I notice and resolve!
Note the 100th consecutive day was September 3 (I incorrectly stated September 2 in the description; updated). The first day was May 27. Today (September 11) the 108th.
Anyone can look at the forecast but here's a writeup of when it might break anway https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix-weather/2024/09/10/when-will-phoenix-drop-below-100-degrees/75143812007/
Hmm, the "Mike Linksvayerbought Ṁ6 108-109 YES2m" seems to show an implementation detail. I last bought "Ṁ99 of 108 - 120 from 126.00 to 125.56" and 99/13 is...well 7 with a remainder. So though I suspect an implementation detail is showing, I also wonder whether there's an off by one. Also probably I'm misunderstanding something.
Also noticing the "holders" tab lists the number of traders holding each increment (ranges of 1 in this case, eg 102-103, 103-104, etc). That feels more like that's just how the market works rather than a showing an implementation detail that doesn't strike me as useful to expose in the way it is (such as the above 92 more trades thing).
You're always trading a range, like 102-103 rather than discrete values. That makes perfect sense where the thing being predicted is continuous. It's a little unintuitive when what is being predicted is discrete, like n days of a streak here.
Thinking about resolving 50% to both sides of the final streak when it ends, so if the steak is 130, 50% to both 129-130 and 130-131. However when you buy it's always
Lower bound <= value < upper bound
So maybe in above scenario 130-131 should get 100%, 129-130 nothing.
@mods any guidance on how a numeric question with a resolution value touched by two ranges should be resolved? The higher range, due to how buying is specified (see above)?
Thanks for making this experimental market type available!
when you trade, you see this:
so the integer '113' corresponds to the option '113', and you'd pick only that. that's the way the market type is intended to work
@jacksonpolack thanks for the confirmation. Idle feedback: it might be more intuitive (well, would be for me) to always display something like "113 <= to < 114" where now in the chart you see "113" and in holdings, trades, resolution, perhaps elsewhere you see "113-114".
ps while not a numeric market I see the creator of https://manifold.markets/yaakovgrunsfeld/how-many-hezbollah-operatives-were used "lower <= x <= upper" to make the answers clear (though not completely consistently, precisely 2000 matches none).
