How many consecutive days will Phoenix's 100+F temperatures persist in 2024
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8
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resolved Sep 18
Resolved
113-114

Data from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=psr

Phoenix's 100th consecutive day of 100+F temperatures was September 3 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2024/09/03/phoenix-arizona-100-degree-weather/75063509007/

https://www.weather.gov/psr/ExtremeTemps says last day of year with a 100+ temp recorded so far is Oct 26. If consecutive days goes past 150, 150 will be judged.

I created this in part to see how the "experimental" numeric market type works, so I'm going to trade in it.

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https://x.com/NWSPhoenix/status/1836205206557868339 enough to resolve (only 93F, same entity).

Phoenix meteorologist saying the streak is over https://x.com/AmberSullins/status/1836180739727200722 will wait for the day to show up at https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=psr presumably tomorrow to resolve, unless it has a big surprise.

https://x.com/NWSPhoenix/status/1836066968673382891

Forecast highs for today are 6-12 degrees below normal. Yes, you heard that right, BELOW NORMAL. Phoenix's streak of 100+ °F days is expected to finally come to an end today, a streak that has been going for 113 days (~3.5 months).

High was 102 today, streak up to 113, predicted to be broken (high under 100) tomorrow https://x.com/NWSPhoenix/status/1835850060061618371

Just noticed X from what I think is the data source https://x.com/NWSPhoenix

Note the high yesterday (2024-09-15) according to https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=psr was 106F, like 6 degrees higher than hour by hour forecasts were showing. I'm not sure if this is typical, hopefully serious traders have investigated and are trading accordingly. Anyway the streak has reached 112 days. Will it continue today?

I've been trading in this question as I said I would in the description, however I won't trade after the data for a new day has been released at the URL above if it indicates the streak has been broken as that feels like cheating. Of course others are welcome to before I notice and resolve!

Note the 100th consecutive day was September 3 (I incorrectly stated September 2 in the description; updated). The first day was May 27. Today (September 11) the 108th.

Anyone can look at the forecast but here's a writeup of when it might break anway https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix-weather/2024/09/10/when-will-phoenix-drop-below-100-degrees/75143812007/

bought Ṁ3 149-150 YES

I created this in part to see how the "experimental" numeric market type works, so I'm going to trade in it.

It's not clear to me that it's possible to buy "lower"; either option seems to result in "higher" for chosen range. Though I might be misunderstanding something!

bought Ṁ6 108-109 YES

Ah, "higher" and "lower" just preselect ranges above and below current expected value. There doesn't seem to be any way to buy down a particular range, other than by buying up other ranges. Though I might be misunderstanding something else!

Hmm, the "Mike Linksvayerbought Ṁ6 108-109 YES2m" seems to show an implementation detail. I last bought "Ṁ99 of 108 - 120 from 126.00 to 125.56" and 99/13 is...well 7 with a remainder. So though I suspect an implementation detail is showing, I also wonder whether there's an off by one. Also probably I'm misunderstanding something.

bought Ṁ2 110-111 YES

Test.

Another implementation detail leak "92 more trades" (I've made 5, spanning a range of 89 by my eyeball math...hmm 89+5 = 92+2?)

Also noticing the "holders" tab lists the number of traders holding each increment (ranges of 1 in this case, eg 102-103, 103-104, etc). That feels more like that's just how the market works rather than a showing an implementation detail that doesn't strike me as useful to expose in the way it is (such as the above 92 more trades thing).

bought Ṁ23 111-112 YES

Not specific to the numeric result market type, but in case a Manifold person happens to read this thread, another random suggestion: turn down the opacity of Source: manifold.markets so it doesn't obscure potentially important parts of the chart, eg

Another odd thing, perhaps about this market type: sell is all or nothing for a given value -- sell all your holdings or not. Unless I'm missing something.

You're always trading a range, like 102-103 rather than discrete values. That makes perfect sense where the thing being predicted is continuous. It's a little unintuitive when what is being predicted is discrete, like n days of a streak here.

Thinking about resolving 50% to both sides of the final streak when it ends, so if the steak is 130, 50% to both 129-130 and 130-131. However when you buy it's always

Lower bound <= value < upper bound

So maybe in above scenario 130-131 should get 100%, 129-130 nothing.

@mods any guidance on how a numeric question with a resolution value touched by two ranges should be resolved? The higher range, due to how buying is specified (see above)?

Thanks for making this experimental market type available!

bought Ṁ500 113-114 YES

Another thing in favor of going with the higher range: that's what's shown in the graph; eg 113-114 is shown as 113:

when you trade, you see this:

so the integer '113' corresponds to the option '113', and you'd pick only that. that's the way the market type is intended to work

@jacksonpolack thanks for the confirmation. Idle feedback: it might be more intuitive (well, would be for me) to always display something like "113 <= to < 114" where now in the chart you see "113" and in holdings, trades, resolution, perhaps elsewhere you see "113-114".

ps while not a numeric market I see the creator of https://manifold.markets/yaakovgrunsfeld/how-many-hezbollah-operatives-were used "lower <= x <= upper" to make the answers clear (though not completely consistently, precisely 2000 matches none).

Couldn't find a question on the current streak.

Topically related (2024) Phoenix seems very likely to "win" but it's just highest for any one day this ~summer:

Questions about heath deaths in [Phoenix] Arizona in future years:

Also in the other direction (cold) for 2024 Phoenix there's