Note the high yesterday (2024-09-15) according to https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=psr was 106F, like 6 degrees higher than hour by hour forecasts were showing. I'm not sure if this is typical, hopefully serious traders have investigated and are trading accordingly. Anyway the streak has reached 112 days. Will it continue today?

I've been trading in this question as I said I would in the description, however I won't trade after the data for a new day has been released at the URL above if it indicates the streak has been broken as that feels like cheating. Of course others are welcome to before I notice and resolve!

Note the 100th consecutive day was September 3 (I incorrectly stated September 2 in the description; updated). The first day was May 27. Today (September 11) the 108th.

Anyone can look at the forecast but here's a writeup of when it might break anway https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix-weather/2024/09/10/when-will-phoenix-drop-below-100-degrees/75143812007/

I created this in part to see how the "experimental" numeric market type works, so I'm going to trade in it.

It's not clear to me that it's possible to buy "lower"; either option seems to result in "higher" for chosen range. Though I might be misunderstanding something!

Ah, "higher" and "lower" just preselect ranges above and below current expected value. There doesn't seem to be any way to buy down a particular range, other than by buying up other ranges. Though I might be misunderstanding something else!

Hmm, the "Mike Linksvayerbought Ṁ6 108-109 YES2m" seems to show an implementation detail. I last bought "Ṁ99 of 108 - 120 from 126.00 to 125.56" and 99/13 is...well 7 with a remainder. So though I suspect an implementation detail is showing, I also wonder whether there's an off by one. Also probably I'm misunderstanding something.

Test.

Another implementation detail leak "92 more trades" (I've made 5, spanning a range of 89 by my eyeball math...hmm 89+5 = 92+2?)

Also noticing the "holders" tab lists the number of traders holding each increment (ranges of 1 in this case, eg 102-103, 103-104, etc). That feels more like that's just how the market works rather than a showing an implementation detail that doesn't strike me as useful to expose in the way it is (such as the above 92 more trades thing).

Not specific to the numeric result market type, but in case a Manifold person happens to read this thread, another random suggestion: turn down the opacity of Source: manifold.markets so it doesn't obscure potentially important parts of the chart, eg

Couldn't find a question on the current streak.

Topically related (2024) Phoenix seems very likely to "win" but it's just highest for any one day this ~summer:

Questions about heath deaths in [Phoenix] Arizona in future years:

Also in the other direction (cold) for 2024 Phoenix there's