On November 5, 2024, San Francisco will hold a mayoral election. This market resolves to YES if current Mayor London Breed is re-elected Mayor.
If London Breed does not appear on the ballot, this market will resolve to no. If Breed is ineligible for office (due to death or changing residence, for example) but is still on the ballot and is elected, this market will resolve to Yes.
Twenty percent of likely voters said they would rank Farrell as their first choice or were leaning toward doing so. Breed came in second at 18%, while nonprofit founder and Levi Strauss heir Daniel Lurie had 16%, and Supervisor Ahsha Safaí had 8%.
Critically, the poll suggests Breed may struggle under the city’s ranked-choice voting system, in which many voters’ second or third choices are usually important in the final outcome. Breed received fewer second-choice votes in the poll than either Farrell or Lurie, the latter of whom was strongest in the second round. More than a third of respondents said they would rank Breed last, after her three main challengers currently in the race.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/mayor-london-breed-election-18678601.php
Honestly with the looming budget deficit and labor discontent that comes with it, I'm feeling less optimistic here.