Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2031, the state of Berlin (or the German federal government) officially expropriates or socializes at least 200,000 housing units from private corporate landlords and transfers them to public, municipal, or communal ownership.

To resolve to YES, all of the following conditions must be met:

1. A binding law must be enacted that mandates the expropriation or socialization (Vergesellschaftung) of residential properties from private landlords.

2. The law or its legal execution must result in the official transfer of ownership/title of at least 200,000 housing units into public, municipal, or communal holding (such as an Anstalt des öffentlichen Rechts or a state-owned housing enterprise).

3. The transfer of these units must be completed and legally in effect by December 31, 2031. If an expropriation law is passed but is subsequently struck down, declared unconstitutional, or permanently blocked by a court (e.g., the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany) before December 31, 2031, preventing the transfer of the 200,000 units, the market will resolve to NO.

If by December 31, 2031, fewer than 200,000 units have been successfully transferred to public/communal ownership, the market will resolve to NO.

Verification: Resolution will be verified using official state publications from the Berlin Senate (berlin.de), the Federal Constitutional Court (bundesverfassungsgericht.de), or major German news outlets (such as Tagesspiegel, Der Spiegel, or Die Zeit).

Background

The democratic socialist party Die Linke is the primary political driver behind implementing the "Deutsche Wohnen & Co. enteignen" (DWE) campaign. In September 2021, a non-binding referendum in Berlin passed with 59.1% of voters supporting the socialization of housing portfolios owned by private companies with more than 3,000 units (affecting an estimated 200,000 to 240,000 units).

Despite the vote, successive Berlin senate coalitions (primarily led by the SPD and CDU) have resisted or stalled the implementation of the initiative, citing legal challenges and the high cost of compensation. Die Linke has consistently campaigned on passing a formal, binding law to carry out the expropriations under Article 15 of the German Basic Law, making the policy a core tenet of their platform.