Will Berlin manage to build 200,000 new apartments before 2031?
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The Berlin government has plans to build approximately 200,000 new apartments in Berlin by 2030. I'm unsure whether they mean "before 2030" or "before the end of 2030". I'll interpret it as "before 2031".

They made plans for this on 20. August 2019, when the senate approved the "Stadtentwicklungsplan Wohnen 2030".

This means building approx. 20,000 new apartments every year.

Between 20. August 2019 and 31. December 2030, will Berlin manage to have built at least 200,000 new apartments?

Let me know if you think I should phrase the resolution criteria differently.

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Related question here: https://manifold.markets/Riemann/will-100k-new-apartments-be-constru-5ac74266f412?r=UmllbWFubg

Will 100k new apartments be constructed in Berlin between end of 2021 and end of 2026?
10% chance. In July 2022, the Senatsverwaltung für Stadtverwaltung, Bauen und Wohnen set itself the goal to complete 100,000 new apartments in Berlin by the end of 2026. www.berlin.de/sen/bauen/neubau/buendnisse/ I will resolve this question according to Table 31121-03-02-4 ("Fertigstellungen von Wohnungen in Wohn- und Nichtwohngebäuden nach Zahl der Räume - Jahressumme") at https://www.regionalstatistik.de/. Specifically, I will add up the total number of new apartments reported in that table between 2022 (inclusive) and 2026 (inclusive). If that sum is greater or equal to 100 000, this question will resolve to YES. Otherwise to NO. Should the Regionalstatistik platform cease to exist before this market resolves, I will attempt to find another source for the corresponding statistic. For reference, here is the current chart generated from the Regionalstatistik platform (yellow bars indicate total number of new apartments, other colors are for specific apartment sizes): [image]
predicts NO

@Riemann Great!

They can't solve problem with appointments in Burgeramt for years and they are supposed to build 20000 apartments yearly. What can go wrong?

Just going by the track records of housing targets I'm leaning no.

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