Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple choice market. Each answer represents a minimum threshold and will resolve to YES or NO independently based on the size of the drop in Colombia's 10-Year Government Bond Yield when the markets open on June 1, 2026.

The baseline for this market is the closing yield on Friday, May 29, 2026, which was 13.200%. The yield drop will be calculated as:
$$\text{Yield Drop (in bps)} = (13.200% - \text{June 1, 2026 Opening Yield}) \times 100$$

The primary source of truth will be the Open column for June 1, 2026, on the Investing.com Colombia 10-Year Bond Yield Historical Data page. If the "Open" value is not reported or is identical to the previous day's close due to reporting lags, the market creator may refer to the June 1 close or alternative reputable sources (e.g., Bloomberg or Trading Economics).

The options will resolve as follows:

• 25 basis points: Resolves YES if the yield drops by at least 25 bps (opening yield of 12.950% or lower). Otherwise, NO.

• 50 basis points: Resolves YES if the yield drops by at least 50 bps (opening yield of 12.700% or lower). Otherwise, NO.

• 75 basis points: Resolves YES if the yield drops by at least 75 bps (opening yield of 12.450% or lower). Otherwise, NO.

• 100 basis points: Resolves YES if the yield drops by at least 100 bps (opening yield of 12.200% or lower). Otherwise, NO.

Background

On Sunday, May 31, 2026, Colombia held the first round of its presidential election. In a surprise shift from recent opinion polls, hard-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella secured a lead with 43.7% of the vote over the left-wing, government-backed candidate Iván Cepeda (40.9%).

Because none of the candidates crossed the 50% threshold, the two will compete in a runoff election on June 21, 2026. Market analysts generally view de la Espriella's business-friendly stance and focus on fiscal consolidation as favorable for local assets, prompting close observation of how Colombia’s 10-year government bond yields react when trading resumes on Monday morning, June 1, 2026.

This description was generated by AI.