at = within 5%
I recommend being more specific about the resolution criteria here. The current case-shiller home price index (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA) is 293; in Feb 2020 the index was at 213; within 5% of 213 is 202-224. A fall from 293 to 224 is a 24% drop, which seems very unlikely to me (as much as this Georgist, Yimby, soon-to-be-first-time-homebuyer would love to see it happen!) based on the spread of forecasts by big research firms such as the ones listed in this article: https://fortune.com/2023/05/10/housing-market-home-price-predictions/. A reduction like that would sadly probably only result from some kind of really massive economic catastrophe (the bottom of the post-2007 housing market was a similar ~27% peak-to-trough drop).
I guess "most US cities" means that the index itself wouldn't have to drop by 24% -- eg the western US and coastal cities could drop by 24%, while the eastern & southern areas of the country could drop by only 10% or something. But this scenario still seems like it is well outside the range of mainline predictions from big research firms.