By the end of 2025, there will be an Apple Watch that has a glucose sensor
By the end of 2025, there will be an Apple Watch that has a glucose sensor
16
1kṀ6448
2026
3%
chance

  • Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The glucose sensor must be functional in measuring glucose.

    • The sensor must actually measure glucose levels rather than serving as a feature for marketing or general wellness.

    • Only devices that demonstrate the capability to provide a glucose measurement will be considered a valid YES outcome.

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4mo

probably regulatory barriers to advertising "glucose sensor". can you clarify if "glucose" needs to be in marketing materials? or would any "wellness feature" incorporating NIR sensors at 1605 and 1706nm resolve YES?

https://advanced.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/adsr.202300160

@DiegoZamalloaChion Nothing to do with advertising. Can it measure my glucose or not?

4mo

@MichaeldelaMaza my point is that lots of things correlate with glucose, just a question of how much. eg one could throw together a statistical model without adding sensors, that might slightly correlate with glucose 1 week average. or they could add low quality sensors that are much less accurate than finger pricking.

specifically, the paper linked above didn't test on through skin. so if their sensors were added, its unclear how this market should resolve if the watch can sort of detect glucose, but the signal is super noisy, etc.

thus, i would prefer specificity of the form: 0.9 correlation with CGM at 5min measurement intervals (alternatively, within 20% of CGM). hopefully none of this detail matters.

@DiegoZamalloaChion You will need to rely on your understanding of what Apple quality means. Do you think they would put out some junk feature and call it glucose sensing? If so, then you are more likely to bet YES.

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