Resolves NO if at any point between now and 2100 Israel doesn't exist.
Successor states count.
I will resolve NO if it loses more than 50% of its Jewish population to emigration or expulsion within a 10-year window, e.g. if it's invaded by a neighboring country and left officially intact, but is no longer serving its intended purpose.
1,000
3.00@MichaelWheatley do you mind if I duplicate your markets for 2050 and 2075, or would you like to do it yourself?
@BrunoParga That might be true, (I'm not Jewish so I'm not an expert in Israel's mandate) but I want to keep this market as clear-cut as possible. I think I chose my words poorly in describing my rationale. Mainly it's supposed to be a market on whether Israel continues to exist, but I felt I needed to rule out in advance the most egregious possible technicalities: e.g. Israel technically still exists but Jews are fleeing it en masse. A watered-down disappointment of an Israel should still qualify for this market, simply because I want to minimize arguments about subjective questions and technicalities.