Who will start (actively) trading on Manifold in 2024?
37
2.1kṀ5609
resolved Jan 22
Resolved
YES
Dwarkesh Patel
Resolved
YES
emmett shear
Resolved
NO
Destiny
Resolved
NO
Lex Fridman
Resolved
NO
Nate Silver
Resolved
NO
SBF
Resolved
NO
Caroline Ellison
Resolved
NO
@eigenrobot
Resolved
NO
Tyler Cowen
Resolved
NO
Alex Tabarrok
Resolved
NO
Bryan Caplan
Resolved
NO
Elon Musk
Resolved
NO
Grimes
Resolved
NO
Martin Shkreli
Resolved
NO
Nassim Taleb
Resolved
NO
Vitalik Buterin
Resolved
NO
Beff Jezos
Resolved
NO
Jimmy Carter
Resolved
NO
jasontheween

Which public figures/famous people/internet microcelebrities will start actively betting on Manifold in 2024?

PLEASE NOTE: I've learned my lesson from past markets: it's no fun when they sign up, create an account, place a single bet, and never sign in again: any account needs have reached 2000 mana in trading volume OR twenty trades by the end of the year to count.

Feel free to add existing accounts of famous people who haven't met the activity threshold, e.g. Lex Fridman.

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@MichaelWheatley can resolve? (AFAIK all the remaining ones are NO, except Dwarkesh). totally fair if you'd rather wait a few weeks for additional evidence

@MichaelWheatley This can resolve, thank you!

bought Ṁ150 YES

Dwarkesh Patel has met the threshold AFAIK.

bought Ṁ500 YES

Should resolve Yes: EmmettShear has made more than 20 trades.

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