Who will start (actively) trading on Manifold in 2024?
Plus
37
Ṁ5609Jan 1
97%
Dwarkesh Patel
10%
Bryan Caplan
9%
Alex Tabarrok
9%
Lex Fridman
7%
jasontheween
6%
Tyler Cowen
4%
Grimes
4%
Vitalik Buterin
2%
Beff Jezos
1.9%
Nassim Taleb
1.0%
Martin Shkreli
Resolved
YESemmett shear
Which public figures/famous people/internet microcelebrities will start actively betting on Manifold in 2024?
PLEASE NOTE: I've learned my lesson from past markets: it's no fun when they sign up, create an account, place a single bet, and never sign in again: any account needs have reached 2000 mana in trading volume OR twenty trades by the end of the year to count.
Feel free to add existing accounts of famous people who haven't met the activity threshold, e.g. Lex Fridman.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@MichaelWheatley can resolve? (AFAIK all the remaining ones are NO, except Dwarkesh). totally fair if you'd rather wait a few weeks for additional evidence
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold have a numerical market type by June 1, 2025?
38% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2030?
68% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2040?
65% chance
Will I work at Manifold in 2024?
1% chance
Will the Atlantic create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
21% chance
Will Sam Altman create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
14% chance
Will Manifold Markets still be active in 2030?
82% chance
Smart contracts on Manifold by end of 2026?
15% chance
Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
13% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?
11% chance