Can Manifold draw a picture with the market graph? [Etch-A-Sketch Edition]
14
Ṁ100Ṁ527resolved Jul 18
Resolved as
30%1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if betters can successfully draw a picture with the market graph.
You can try to draw anything except for a cityscape, which I'm disqualifying on the grounds that every Manifold chart currently looks like a cityscape.
Based on past markets https://manifold.markets/ian/can-we-draw-an-animal-with-the-grap and https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/draw-an-emoji
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The problem is, I doubt we’ll get something this coherent again? Like it was a miracle that no one came in randomly and bought lots of NO. So I think this puts a precedent on these sorts of questions being pretty much impossible, which is why I think they should be interpreted more favourably, if that makes sense.
@BionicD0LPH1N I completely agree, this art has to be appreciated in the context of total war. The artists were doomed to failure in all likelihood by selfish actors, but somehow, in spite of these terrible odds, the tower on the right rose defiantly optimistic, the lighthouse of a bright future.
@BionicD0LPH1N I too, am starting to suspect that these markets are near-impossible, but this is still only the third one to be run, and the first with the new graph appearance, so it felt too early to start grading on a curve.
Honestly, if this resolves to NO after this https://manifold.markets/ian/can-we-draw-an-animal-with-the-grap resolved to YES, I will cry.
@BionicD0LPH1N Wait was it after the stepchart change? I assumed that it was in the interpolated line era and that the giraffe was much more striking then
@JoyVoid Ohhh that's very possible, the way I'm currently look at it it doesn't look very much like a giraffe but I didn't take that into consideration at all.
@JoyVoid The graph change did a lot of damage, but I remember even back then thinking it was a stretch.
@MartinRandall I feel like we’re drawing it too slowly currently. Do you think what we currently have would count as a pastoral scene of rolling hills? Not much rolling going on. I’m afraid changing the pace might ruin what we have so far though, and I won’t be able to follow up on it in the next day much, so all I can do is believe in the rest of you :)
@BionicD0LPH1N we ended up getting just the one hill, and perhaps a little village at the bottom of it, but it's still pretty pastoral. What do you think about putting a castle with a moat at the end?
@MartinRandall I don’t think there’s enough time for a castle, although a lighthouse would fit right in I think, and be more distinctive. Lighthouse in progress. (Sorry for changing the style away from medieval)
@BionicD0LPH1N I was mostly thinking of a castle to account for the spike to 100% when everyone realizes what a good job we did with the hill and village. I like the lighthouse plan!
@MartinRandall No one would… defect, would they? That would be very bad! 🙀 For real though, yeah you’re right, any strategy that incorporates the spike to 100% will be much more likely to succeed. If we were to go for that, what size would you make the castle? Oh and also I didn’t really think before, who’ll agree to make the dip of the lighthouse? This clearly looks like it’s going to succeed!
@BionicD0LPH1N Not too late to turn this lighthouse into a castle's motte or bailey. Probably we should try to make a bailey but then if that is looking sketchy say that we meant to make a motte all along.
@MartinRandall LOL exactly. I’d argue that if there’s some last second movement, it simply represents the light from the lighthouse, illuminating the sky and sea 😔
@BionicD0LPH1N, @MartinRandall, @akhil, I'm going to run this by a couple people for judging, since with me having been privy to all these discussions, I'd rather defer to a fresh pair of eyes. Have you got any final statement as to what you want to claim to have drawn?
@MichaelWheatley I think that what we ended up drawing was, in chronological order:
- Rolling hills
- A village
- Luscious plains
- A lighthouse on a rocky hill, overlooking the ocean (the ocean is outside of the picture, but can be imagined) (btw this took much effort and coordination!)
- The edge of the canvas
Another valid interpretation (there is an infinite number of other valid interpretations that would make this market resolve positively):
- A (relatively small) tsunami wave on the left, incoming quickly
- A mage with a majestic cape on the right (I'm thinking of something like this: https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/powerful-wizard-holds-wooden-magic-staff-old-wizard-dressed-green-cloak-hood-holds-his-magic-staff-his-hands-209535055.jpg). The mage is trying to stop the destruction of his town by the tsunami. Although he doesn't think that he has a chance to live through the shock of the wave himself, he hopes that his sacrifice, added to the small magical wall behind them, will be enough to save their village. It really a tragic picture, because Bartholomew ends up not making it :'( He saved 38 lives that day, plus the village dog Roofus.
- A magical wall, obviously
- (On the right, outside of the picture) A village with people hoping and praying that Bartholomew will make it and save them
Obviously, the left side is a bit wrong here, since there are no rolling hills in the right place, but that picture from Dall-E 2 should illustrate what I was originally personally envisioning. https://labs.openai.com/s/vZNUYLMnJ1Mh7p3J14MV5wBq
This one is even closer to what we have. https://labs.openai.com/s/XmATtZ8EAYMsbmLujUeHuzHf
@MichaelWheatley A wave on the left, approaching a lighthouse on the right. Kinda like this:
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/10001/production/_123073556_9870a61e-c4f3-402c-8d0f-1b86ba849a40.jpg
@MichaelWheatley And to fully capture everything, wave approaching a lighthouse, and a skyscraper on the coast line at the far right edge:
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/10001/production/_123073556_9870a61e-c4f3-402c-8d0f-1b86ba849a40.jpg
https://render.fineartamerica.com/images/images-profile-flow/400/images/artworkimages/mediumlarge/3/chicago-harbor-lighthouse-moses-polonio.jpg