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MANIFOLD
Will a Ukrainian grain ship be sunk by Russia by September 1st?
25
Ṁ510Ṁ6.2k
resolved Sep 9
Resolved
NO

This market will resolve Yes if the New York Times or another paper of records Russia actively sank a Ukrainian grain ship (hitting a mine isn't active like a missile, torpedo, or direct attack).

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Ukraine-Russia war
Ukraine
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I can find no evidence of this happening. Resolves NO.

💡 I am using my moderation permissions to resolve this market on behalf of the creator. This is according to the Manifold Markets unresolved markets policy found here.

If the creator returns and wishes to change the resolution, please reply to this comment and tag @DavidChee. The admins will then undo the resolution I chose and you may pick your desired resolution.

predictedNO

Please have this resolved.

https://manifold.markets/AnT/will-russia-attack-any-ship-going-t?r=U2ViYXN0aWFuV29ybXM


Slightly

better odds there

Will Russia attack any ship going to or from Ukraine by September 1st? [see description]
5% chance. Resolves YES if such an attack is mentioned in NATO, UN or by Russian officials. Resolves NO if there is no mention of such attack by the close date. UPD 1: military vessels such as https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-forces-destroyed-us-made-military-vessel-near-snake-island-2023-08-22/ are too small and don't qualify. UPD 2: ships going between ports of Ukraine do count. UPD 3: ferries on inland waterways don't count; the ship should be able to travel by sea.
predictedYES

Warming up...

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