Will Scott Alexander/Astral Codex Ten receive coverage in a journalistic outlet in the next two months?
resolved Feb 25

The sole purpose of this market is to establish a conditional probability for a different market: https://manifold.markets/MichaelDickens/will-at-least-one-journalistic-outl

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This opinion article links to this Scott Alexander article.

Curious whether this will count as coverage. It does show an example of the NYT talking about Scott Alexander neutrally and giving a fair summary of his article, so I think for what this market was trying to measure it should count YES. But they certainly don't talk about Scott at length. I wish the description had provided more clarity in advance.

@JoshuaB this looks like a "yes" but NYT won't let me see the article so I'm not 100% sure

In retrospect, I don't think this market made much sense, it should have been something like "Will at least one journalistic outlet quote https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/you-dont-want-a-purely-biological?" which would have been more relevant

@Conflux yes, thanks!

I'm not sure whether this counts, it depends on whether NYT opinion pieces are beholden to (NYT's) journalistic ethics standards, see my comment here https://manifold.markets/MichaelDickens/will-at-least-one-journalistic-outl#lAkoBheWuaAVh9EeLLsr I think they are, but I'm not sure.

@MichaelDickens I found this website https://www.nytimes.com/editorial-standards/ethical-journalism.html# which seems to state that NYT opinion writers are beholden to journalistic standards, including "the exactness of quotations". The wording is a little indirect, but is that enough to resolve this market?

@Conflux It also says 'These guidelines generally apply to all members of the news and opinion departments whose work directly affects the content of the paper"

I figured out the secret to resolving a tricky market with vague criteria:

  1. wait for someone to make a large bid

  2. say you are not sure how to resolve it

  3. the person who made the large bid will do the necessary research to figure out why you should resolve it in their favor

although that's not quite what happened because @Conflux originally bet No and then changed to Yes

@MichaelDickens in this case I was just hawking the live feed :)