Which party will win the most seats in Thailand’s next general election?

Market type: Multiple choice (single winner)

Answer options:

1. Pheu Thai Party (เพื่อไทย)

2. People’s Party / Move Forward successor

3. Bhumjaithai Party (ภูมิใจไทย)

4. Democrat Party (ประชาธิปัตย์)

5. Palang Pracharath Party (พลังประชารัฐ)

   
   This market resolves to the political party that wins the highest number of seats in the House of Representatives in Thailand’s general election.

Resolution criteria:

• The market resolves to the political party that wins the highest number of seats in the House of Representatives in that early election.

• If the event of election is canceled or indefinitely postponed, the market resolves as N/A.

• If parties merge, split, or rebrand, seats will be counted for the party that is the direct legal successor recognized at the time of the election.

Pheu Thai Party (เพื่อไทย)

• Political position: Center-left, populist

• Background: Successor to parties linked to Thaksin Shinawatra; long-standing major force in Thai politics

• Core support: Rural voters, working-class voters, and parts of the urban middle class

• Key themes:

  • Economic stimulus and welfare programs

  • Income support, healthcare, debt relief

  • Strong state role in the economy

• Strengths:

  • Large, loyal voter base

  • Strong nationwide party machinery

• Risks:

  • Opposition from conservative institutions

  • Coalition constraints even if it wins many seats

People’s Party / Move Forward successor

(Refers to the party continuing the Move Forward tradition after its legal dissolution)

• Political position: Progressive, reformist

• Core support: Young voters, urban voters, pro-democracy activists

• Key themes:

  • Military reform and civilian control

  • Constitutional reform

  • Decentralization and civil liberties

• Strengths:

  • Highly motivated supporters

  • Strong social media and grassroots campaigning

• Risks:

  • Legal challenges and bans

  • Resistance from conservative power centers

Bhumjaithai Party (ภูมิใจไทย)

• Political position: Pragmatic, centrist to center-right

• Core support: Provincial networks, local political leaders

• Key themes:

  • Regional development

  • Infrastructure and public health

  • Policy pragmatism over ideology

• Strengths:

  • Strong local political machines

  • Flexible coalition partner

• Risks:

  • Less ideological loyalty from voters

  • Rarely dominates nationally on its own

Democrat Party (ประชาธิปัตย์)

• Political position: Center-right, conservative-liberal

• Background: Thailand’s oldest political party

• Core support: Southern Thailand, older voters

• Key themes:

  • Rule of law and institutional stability

  • Fiscal responsibility

  • Gradual reform

• Strengths:

  • Established brand and party history

• Risks:

  • Declining national relevance

  • Competition from both progressive and populist parties

Palang Pracharath Party (พลังประชารัฐ)

• Political position: Conservative, pro-establishment

• Background: Closely associated with the military-backed government after the 2014 coup

• Core support: Pro-status-quo voters, parts of the bureaucracy and business community

• Key themes:

  • Stability and continuity

  • National security

  • State-led economic projects

• Strengths:

  • Connections to powerful institutions

  • Coalition leverage

• Risks:

  • Declining popular support

  • Internal factionalism