From https://metaculus.com/questions/16741/trump-sexual-assault-case/

E. Jean Carroll, a writer and former advice columnist for Elle magazine, has accused former President Donald Trump of raping her in the mid-1990s at the Bergdorf Goodman department store in Manhattan. Carroll first spoke about the allegations in 2019, during Trump's presidency, and filed a defamation lawsuit against him in November 2019 after he denied the allegations and accused her of lying to boost sales of her forthcoming book. The defamation lawsuit stalled in the courts for years and has yet to reach trial.

In 2022, New York lawmakers passed the state's Adult Survivors Act, which provided sexual abuse victims a one-year window to sue attackers for assaults that occurred years earlier. This law enabled Carroll to file a second lawsuit against Trump in November 2022, accusing him of both rape and defamation for denying the assault took place. The second lawsuit, seeking damages and a retraction of his denial, is now being presented in a New York City federal courtroom under the supervision of US District Judge Lewis Kaplan. The proceedings began on April 25, 2023, and both sides rested their cases on May 4th.

For Trump, a loss in the defamation case could lead to financial damages and further damage his reputation. Moreover, an unfavorable outcome in the rape case could potentially validate Carroll's allegations and add to the controversies surrounding Trump's personal conduct. Losing the cases could also have broader implications, as it could embolden other accusers to pursue legal action and weaken Trump's political influence moving forward.