Will Trump successfully appeal the hush money case?
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54
7.7k
2025
45%
chance

Successfully appeal means his all his convictions are overturned or mistrial is declared.

This market is about the ultimate result, once all appeals are exhausted or not being further pursued by either side.

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Just to clarify the resolution criteria:

I assume the market resolves if Trump successfully appeals the current jury verdict? (I.e., if his convictions are vacated but remanded for a new trial, then it resolves "yes" without depending on the result of the second trial and any subsequent appeal thereof?)

I assume "mistrial" includes the appellate court vacating the conviction and remanding for further proceedings or a new trial, whether or not that's denominated a "mistrial"?

This resolves "yes" if the trial court itself vacates the jury verdict? (Trump has filed a motion requesting that, which the trial court is considering.)

What does "successfully appeal" mean? That the appellate court will rule in his favor?

@Jo2e2b conviction overturned or mistrial declared.

@Jo2e2b let me know if you think that misses anything.

@Daniel_MC Does he have to overturn all of his convictions, or is overturning some of the counts enough?

@NateWatson All, though I think its that its an all or nothing situation.

@Daniel_MC is this only the first court that reviews his appeal, or any court that ever does? So for example if a NY state court rejects the appeal but then the Supreme Court accepts it (don't know if this is actually how it works, just a hypothetical)

@mint it's about the ultimate result once all appeals are exhausted or aren't going to be persued.

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