Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?
27
117
530
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

From https://metaculus.com/questions/16411/ministerial-resignations-in-sunak-government/

Rishi Sunak’s first speech as Prime Minister of the UK on October 25, 2022 highlighted his desire to lead a government that will bring back professionalism and accountability, in contrast to the two previous governments, led by Truss and Johnson respectively:

The government I lead will not leave the next generation, your children and grandchildren, with a debt to settle that we were too weak to pay ourselves.

I will unite our country, not with words, but with action.

I will work day in and day out to deliver for you.

This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level.

One way that Sunak has demonstrated his desire for his government to be seen as living up to that goal is by sacking Nadhim Zahawi in early 2023 for breach of ministerial code. Similarly, in April 2023, Deputy PM Dominic Raab resigned following the outcome of a bullying investigation before Sunak could sack him, as had been speculated would happen.

While ministerial resignation/sackings can be a sign of the above drive for more accountability, they can also indicate growing dissatisfaction within the party with the actions by the Prime Minister, as was the case with Boris Johnson, where more than 50 members of Parliament resigned from his government in less than 2 days.

Tracking ministerial resignations is thus important for a variety of reasons and may provide some evidence into the functioning of a government. So far, four ministers have resigned under Sunak:

Surname Ministerial title Date Reason Williamson Minister without portfolio 9/11/22 Resigned after allegations of misbehaviour Stedman-Scott Parliamentary Under Secretary of State 1/1/23 Personal reasons Zahawi Minister without portfolio (party chair) 29/1/23 Sacked - breach of ministerial code Raab Secretary of State for Justice, Lord Chancellor, and Deputy PM 21/4/23 Resigned following outcome of bullying investigation

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According to Wikipedia we're at 11 already: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunak_ministry#Departures_from_the_Sunak_ministry

But for some reason Metaculus's source is only 8:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gVHNx4kzXd947AFfQGiJg5zJrdNXrM81t2OC8UJFnw8/edit#gid=0

Do PPSs not count? Seems like this market should either be at like 1% or 100%. I guess the uncertainty is just uncertainty over resolution criteria?

bought Ṁ97 of NO

@Fion
The PPS link says
"PPSs are not members of the government, and all efforts are made to avoid these positions being referred to as such. They are instead considered more simply as normal Members. However, their close confidence with ministers does impose obligations on every PPS."

So not really even members of the government let alone being 'ministerial level'. However, I am not taking up a large position though 9 is somewhat short of 11 needed.

sold Ṁ8 of YES

@ChristopherRandles Makes sense, thanks. The Wikipedia table probably isn't laid out in the best way.

predicted NO

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