Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?
123
17k
2030
50%
chance
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/ Closes Aug 1, 2024. Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2030. Close date updated to 2029-12-31 11:59 pm
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Why do people keep buying this higher than P(this|A) and P(this|not(A))? Both here and on Metaculus?

@dph121 arbitrage is a lot of work

This market is out of whack with https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-spacex-send-a-starship-to-mars?r=SmFja3NvbldhZ25lcg

and https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/conditional-on-starship-reaching-or?r=SmFja3NvbldhZ25lcg ...

The last launch window for Mars that could arrive by 2030 is Q4 2028 / Q1 2029. So, the markets linked above would cut off that last bit of the launch window in Q1 2029. BUT, they also don't require the totally-untested 8-month deep-space cruise and mars reentry & landing to be successful! So, if anything, IMO those markets should be higher than this one!

@JacksonWagner Actually both markets are about launching before 2028, so the 2028 launch window is not included. That makes them about the 2026 launch window, which is a lot more unlikely.

@JacksonWagner iiuc this market is says "if they land anything on mars" which doesn't require starship or even anything manned

predicts NO

@Mqrius Oops, yes, those other markets are "by 2028", thus making them about the 2026 window!

I guess I still think that "will they launch Starship to Mars in 2026" is possibly more likely than "will they successfully land Starship on Mars in 2029"? Depends on how similar mars-landing is to earth-landing, how many shots on goal they are able to take in each launch window, etc.

@AlexAmadori , None of these markets require that Starship be manned. And yes, this market doesn't require that it be Starship, but I think there is very low chance that SpaceX decides to just yeet something out there with a Falcon Heavy -- what would be the payload / landing system? (Unless maybe you count a scientific NASA mars mission that launches on a SpaceX rocket?)

Related, with one fewer launch window.