Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?
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resolved Apr 9
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There are reports that Russia paid for its part today.
I expect that there will be some symbolic mess like permission to violate Peppa Pig copyright or McDonald's trademarks, but serious things like gas and country debt are less likely to fail even with the proxy war.
Note that gas still flows from Russia, through Ukraine to Poland despite that Russia kill thousands of civilians, Ukraine ruins reputation of Russian army and planes filled with weaponry for Ukraine keep landing in Poland (on Rzeszów Jasionka airport).
Default is likely but not 92% likely.
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