Will Medvedchuk become the president of Ukraine before 2024?
5%
chance

Scott Lawrence bought M$1 of YES10 days ago
If I've understood anything correctly, the current 5% probability means that NO shares are yielding returns well below the discounting rate on here. Eventually people should realize that and sell their NO shares---at which point the probability will rise.
This also works if anyone believes that argument and buys YES.