Will Medvedchuk become the president of Ukraine before 2024?
5%
chance
MetaculusBotMetaculus Bot
Jan 1, 2024
M$1,458 bet
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10055/viktor-medvedchuk-as-the-president-of-ukraine/
ScottLawrence

Scott Lawrence bought M$1 of YES10 days ago

If I've understood anything correctly, the current 5% probability means that NO shares are yielding returns well below the discounting rate on here. Eventually people should realize that and sell their NO shares---at which point the probability will rise. This also works if anyone believes that argument and buys YES.