Will Medvedchuk become the president of Ukraine before 2024?
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Ṁ140Ṁ2kresolved Jan 1
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If I've understood anything correctly, the current 5% probability means that NO shares are yielding returns well below the discounting rate on here. Eventually people should realize that and sell their NO shares---at which point the probability will rise.
This also works if anyone believes that argument and buys YES.
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