Will Kyiv fall before 2023?
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From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10269/kyiv-fall-before-2023/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
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Russia seems to have shifted its stance to just “liberate the Donbass”:
https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1507400330140696576
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-goals-scaled-back/31770879.html
Metaculus now down to 20%.
I created "Will Odessa fall before 2023?" to complement this market, see https://manifold.markets/M/will-odessa-fall-before-2023-322eeb61935c
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