See also https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-kyiv-fall-before-2023
Intended resolution will match what is present there
> This question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2023 it is publicly reported by at least three of the following 7 sources (The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera) or from direct statements from at least two Permanent UNSC members (excluding Russia) that Odessa is under Russian military control. If this does not happen by the end of 2022, this question will resolve negatively.
though I am going to exclude from "reported" thanks posted as result of hacking etc.
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https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-russian-troops-enter-odessa-uk has "Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?" market which is a bit wider scenario.
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