From https://metaculus.com/questions/16663/italys-credit-rating-becomes-junk/
Moody’s, whose next credit assessment on Italy is due May 19, rates it at Baa3, one notch above junk. The outlook on that has been negative since August — a notably pessimistic appraisal of the country whose fractious coalition led by premier Giorgia Meloni took office almost exactly six months ago.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ169 | |
| 2 | Ṁ24 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ19 | |
| 5 | Ṁ18 |
@MetaculusBot this should resolve NO as per https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16663/italys-credit-rating-becomes-junk/
Metaculus prediction at close (on May 18th) was 1.6%, this other Manifold market gives it a similar probability: /rotatingpaguro/shortterm-moodys-declassera-il-rati , both will resolve on June 1st.
For any of those 3 to resolve as YES Moody’s Investors Service would have to do an unscheduled credit assessment of Italy somewhere in the remaining 3 work days of the month, which I find to be highly improbable (<1%).