Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?
closes Jun 20

From https://metaculus.com/questions/16663/italys-credit-rating-becomes-junk/

Moody’s, whose next credit assessment on Italy is due May 19, rates it at Baa3, one notch above junk. The outlook on that has been negative since August — a notably pessimistic appraisal of the country whose fractious coalition led by premier Giorgia Meloni took office almost exactly six months ago.

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MayMetais predicting NO at 0.4%
MayMeta avatar
MayMetabought Ṁ1,050 of NO

Metaculus prediction at close (on May 18th) was 1.6%, this other Manifold market gives it a similar probability: /rotatingpaguro/shortterm-moodys-declassera-il-rati , both will resolve on June 1st.

For any of those 3 to resolve as YES Moody’s Investors Service would have to do an unscheduled credit assessment of Italy somewhere in the remaining 3 work days of the month, which I find to be highly improbable (<1%).

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