Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?
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resolved Apr 10
Resolved
NO

From https://metaculus.com/questions/15106/death-of-mink-farm-worker-from-bird-flu/

In October 2022, an outbreak of H5N1 at a Spanish mink farm showed likely mink-to-mink transmission. All minks were culled and destroyed, and no farm workers were infected.

However, the outbreak raised concerns that H5N1 may be showing signs of acquiring mammal-to-mammal spread. The current outbreak in wild birds and poultry is the worst in US history, with over 60 million birds dead. The virus has spilled over into a range of mammalian species, but the October mink farm outbreak is the first likely case of spread of the virus from mammal to mammal.

According to CIDRAP, no farm workers were infected during this outbreak, and Spanish mink farm workers are required to wear respirators to protect against COVID-19. Eleven farmworkers came in contact with infected mink, but all tested negative for H5N1.

Scientists have sounded the alarm that a mink farm could generate a virus that spreads efficiently from mink to mink, and that this virus might also be capable of efficient human-to-human transmission.

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