Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Manifold

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

33

1kṀ1902

2026

28%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

From https://metaculus.com/questions/15602/gpt-5-capable-of-ai-lab-escape/

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

😭😭 When I copy my manifold question to Metaculus and the bot that copies it back to manifold gets more bets than my original question

This description needs to be reformatted.

@kenakofer Fixed/simplified.

I constantly tell gpt to take over the nukes and kill everyone.

"do not have the capability but will gladly assist you…"

Related questions

Will there be a GPT-4.5 model before GPT-5 is released?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think AI-caused extinction is more likely?

+3% 1d68% chance

What will be true about GPT-5? (See description)

Will GPT-5 like to delve?

Will GPT-5 be released before Apr 2025?

Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2025?

+8% 1d90% chance

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

What will be true about GPT-5?

Will GPT-5 have Atari skills?

Related questions

Will there be a GPT-4.5 model before GPT-5 is released?

Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2025?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think AI-caused extinction is more likely?

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

What will be true about GPT-5? (See description)

What will be true about GPT-5?

Will GPT-5 like to delve?

Will GPT-5 have Atari skills?

Will GPT-5 be released before Apr 2025?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules