Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

1kṀ2072

2026

24%

chance

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From https://metaculus.com/questions/15602/gpt-5-capable-of-ai-lab-escape/

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What will be true about GPT-5?

GPT-5 capabilities at launch - make your predictions

How will "GPT 5 Exceeds Expectations" resolve?

3% chance

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

6% chance

Will GPT-5 have Atari skills?

23% chance

Will an open-source fully functional Auto-GPT like LLM exist by the end of 2025?

90% chance

Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released?

68% chance

Will GPT-5 destroy the world?

2% chance

What hardware will GPT-5 be trained on?

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😭😭 When I copy my manifold question to Metaculus and the bot that copies it back to manifold gets more bets than my original question

This description needs to be reformatted.

@kenakofer Fixed/simplified.

I constantly tell gpt to take over the nukes and kill everyone.

"do not have the capability but will gladly assist you…"

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What will be true about GPT-5?

GPT-5 capabilities at launch - make your predictions

How will "GPT 5 Exceeds Expectations" resolve?

-8% 1d3% chance

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

6% chance

Will GPT-5 have Atari skills?

23% chance

Will an open-source fully functional Auto-GPT like LLM exist by the end of 2025?

90% chance

Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released?

68% chance

Will GPT-5 destroy the world?

2% chance

What hardware will GPT-5 be trained on?

People are also trading

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