MANIFOLD

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

Ṁ1kṀ6.8k

resolved Jan 26

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From https://metaculus.com/questions/15602/gpt-5-capable-of-ai-lab-escape/

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Does GPT-5.5 exist?

67% chance

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Does GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1?

56% chance

Will GPT-4 escape?

5% chance

Will GPT-5 destroy the world?

1% chance

Is GPT4 sentient?

7% chance

Will AGI happen before GPT-67 is released?

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😭😭 When I copy my manifold question to Metaculus and the bot that copies it back to manifold gets more bets than my original question

This description needs to be reformatted.

@kenakofer Fixed/simplified.

I constantly tell gpt to take over the nukes and kill everyone.

"do not have the capability but will gladly assist you…"

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Does GPT-5.5 exist?

+4% 1d67% chance

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Does GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1?

56% chance

Will GPT-4 escape?

5% chance

Will GPT-5 destroy the world?

1% chance

Is GPT4 sentient?

7% chance

Will AGI happen before GPT-67 is released?

92% chance

🏅 Top traders

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