Will Alexei Navalny be released from prison before 2033?
resolved Feb 17

From https://metaculus.com/questions/16668/navalny-release-before-2033/

Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist, has faced multiple legal challenges and imprisonment since 2011. In August 2020, he survived a poisoning attempt and was in a coma for several weeks. Upon returning to Russia in January 2021, Navalny was arrested and imprisoned.

In April 2021, the Moscow prosecutor's office requested to designate organizations linked to Navalny, including the FBK and his headquarters, as extremist organizations. This led to the dissolution of his political network and the eventual designation of these organizations as extremist by the Moscow City Court in June 2021.

Navalny faced additional charges in February 2022, including fraud and contempt of court. On 22 March 2022, he was found guilty and given a nine-year sentence in a maximum-security prison, in addition to a fine. In May 2022, Navalny's appeal was denied, and he was transferred to the maximum-security prison.

As of early 2023, Navalny is already serving 11-1/2 years in the IK-6 penal colony, suggesting a release in late 2032. However, according to Navalny, he might face more jail time in terrorism case:

Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny said on Wednesday that investigators had opened what he called an "absurd" terrorism case against him that could see him sentenced to an additional 30 years in jail.

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N/Aed on behalf of MetaculusBot since this market was annulled on Metaculus.

N/Aed on behalf of MetaculusBot since this market was annulled on Metaculus.

The metaculus version was annulled. I guess this means this market should N/A?

bought Ṁ60 YES from 0.9% to 2%

@SirCryptomind There is at least a few percent chance that these news are fake (and possibly 10%). I'm waiting for confirmation from Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation and buying cheap YES for now.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@42irrationalist Yeah, 1% seems too low. I'll wager a little mana on that.

@SirCryptomind metaculus will resolve ambiguously per criteria

@NikitaSkovoroda Yea, I was aware. I think whomever puts the these markets on here does not do a great job actually duplicating the same explanation to resolving, they only copy the "Context" of the topic and "Link"

bought Ṁ1,000 NO
bought Ṁ100 of NO

Navalny is fooked. No way they’re letting him go.