From https://metaculus.com/questions/16668/navalny-release-before-2033/

Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist, has faced multiple legal challenges and imprisonment since 2011. In August 2020, he survived a poisoning attempt and was in a coma for several weeks. Upon returning to Russia in January 2021, Navalny was arrested and imprisoned.

In April 2021, the Moscow prosecutor's office requested to designate organizations linked to Navalny, including the FBK and his headquarters, as extremist organizations. This led to the dissolution of his political network and the eventual designation of these organizations as extremist by the Moscow City Court in June 2021.

Navalny faced additional charges in February 2022, including fraud and contempt of court. On 22 March 2022, he was found guilty and given a nine-year sentence in a maximum-security prison, in addition to a fine. In May 2022, Navalny's appeal was denied, and he was transferred to the maximum-security prison.

As of early 2023, Navalny is already serving 11-1/2 years in the IK-6 penal colony, suggesting a release in late 2032. However, according to Navalny, he might face more jail time in terrorism case:

Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny said on Wednesday that investigators had opened what he called an "absurd" terrorism case against him that could see him sentenced to an additional 30 years in jail.