What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?
6
460Ṁ7132031
49%
26%
4
16%
4.5
6%
3.5
1.3%
5
1.4%
3.9
1.4%
3.8
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/
Acceptable answers: decimal to tenth, i.e. "4.2".
Close date updated to 2030-12-31 11:59 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?
33% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
74% chance
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
6% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?
80% chance
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?
7% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
71% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?
75% chance