Background

Javier Milei, Argentina's president, faces potential impeachment threats amid various controversies, including a recent cryptocurrency scandal. The impeachment process in Argentina requires a two-thirds majority vote in the Chamber of Deputies to bring charges, followed by a Senate trial. Milei currently maintains approval ratings around 50%.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• The Argentine Senate votes to remove Milei from office through the constitutional impeachment process before December 31, 2025, 23:59 ART (Argentina Time)

This market will resolve NO if:

• Milei remains in office through December 31, 2025

• Milei leaves office for any reason other than impeachment (resignation, death, etc.)

• Impeachment proceedings begin but are not completed by the end of 2025

• Impeachment charges are brought but fail to receive the required votes

Considerations

• Mid-term elections in October 2025 could significantly impact the political landscape and the likelihood of successful impeachment

• The outcome of ongoing investigations into the cryptocurrency controversy could affect impeachment prospects

• While there have been calls for impeachment from opposition parties, achieving the required two-thirds majority is historically difficult