A US federal judge will be impeached by end of 2025
13
59
270
2025
17%
chance

Background information: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/impeachment-and-removal-judges-explainer

Applies to any federal judge, including district, appeal, or supreme. Resolves YES on vote to impeach in the house, not conviction. Resolves NO at end of 2025.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ15 of YES

Based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_judges, the average rate seems to be about 0.3 impeachments per year. Assuming a Poisson distribution would put the odds at about 86%. Intuitively, that seems unreasonable.

sold Ṁ8 of YES

@UnconditionalProbability ... It was unreasonable since that is a list of investigations, not impeachments.

A US federal judge will be impeached by end of 2025, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition