A US federal judge will be impeached by end of 2025
13
59
Ṁ1.4kṀ270
2025
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Applies to any federal judge, including district, appeal, or supreme. Resolves YES on vote to impeach in the house, not conviction. Resolves NO at end of 2025.
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Based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_judges, the average rate seems to be about 0.3 impeachments per year. Assuming a Poisson distribution would put the odds at about 86%. Intuitively, that seems unreasonable.
@UnconditionalProbability ... It was unreasonable since that is a list of investigations, not impeachments.
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