Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "YES" if the United States government or the United States military officially initiates a naval or aerial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on or before April 18, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. A blockade is defined as a deliberate effort to prevent the passage of commercial or military vessels through the strait.

If no such action is officially announced or confirmed by the U.S. Department of State or the U.S. Department of Defense by this time, the market resolves to "NO." Any actions short of a formal blockade, such as increased naval patrols, heightened rhetoric, or sanctions, do not qualify for a "YES"