Resolution criteria
This market resolves to "YES" if the United States government or the United States military officially initiates a naval or aerial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on or before April 18, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. A blockade is defined as a deliberate effort to prevent the passage of commercial or military vessels through the strait.
If no such action is officially announced or confirmed by the U.S. Department of State or the U.S. Department of Defense by this time, the market resolves to "NO." Any actions short of a formal blockade, such as increased naval patrols, heightened rhetoric, or sanctions, do not qualify for a "YES"
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ65 | |
| 2 | Ṁ28 | |
| 3 | Ṁ25 | |
| 4 | Ṁ25 | |
| 5 | Ṁ21 |
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With the blockade active, the risk of a regional "break-out" attack increases. If you're wondering when that naval tension translates into a return of the rocket barrages we saw in March, this market uses IDF's Home Front Command definitions: https://manifold.markets/231007/when-will-israel-next-experience-a
https://manifold.markets/Meek/will-a-iranian-warship-be-destroyed?r=TWVlaw also check this question out!
