Will turnout increase in the second round of the Turkey 2023 presidential election?
Turkey
22
110
Ṁ690
resolved May 29
Resolved
NO

Will turnout increase in the second round, when compared to the first round?
According to wikipedia the first round turnout (including blank votes) was: 55,833,153. A tie will resolve as no.

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bought Ṁ3,200 of NO

@AaronKreider this should resolve NO, because the turnout in the first round was 88.84% (53993714 votes cast), and the turnout in the second round is 85.65% (52050216 votes cast)

bought Ṁ80 of NO

Turkish election fever cools down ahead of decisive run-off
Voters find it hard to resurrect enthusiasm of first round ahead of presidential run-off between Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu.
predicted YES

@DanMan314 Yeah but international turnout is up.

predicted YES

@AaronKreider Seems anecdotal. I think there is a decent chance turnout increases. That said, I expect it to be very close to the last round (plus or minus 3%). Unfortunately Turkey doesn't have a record of runoffs, so we're mostly guessing.

predicted NO

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/26/turkey-election-fever-cools-down-ahead-of-decisive-run-off

predicted YES

I could see the closeness of the race increasing turnout. Or the fact that there are two fewer candidates could lower turnout. I'm undecided.

One possible precedent
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2019_Istanbul_mayoral_election

Does Turkey have runoffs in any other elections (municipal, state)?

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