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I click on resolve and it jumps the page but doesn't give me the option to resolve. How do I resolve it?

@AaronKreider Can you resolve? doesn’t make sense to wait for certification imo

Associated Press projects victory for Cherelle Parker

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/cherelle-parker-beats-back-progressive-challenge-in-philadelphia-mayoral-primary/ar-AA1bhw86

Some people (on polymarket) are saying that Parker is favored. Big if true.

https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-philadelphia-mayoral-democratic-primary

https://manifold.markets/xyz/will-turkey-order-a-redo-presidenti
(testing links to other markets to try and get charts)

https://manifold.markets/AaronKreider/who-will-win-the-2023-philadelphia

@AaronKreider I'm trying to get a historical price chart embedded. How can I do this?

@AaronKreider there is a chart button at the bottom of the comment field.

@evergreenemily Lol. It's a three way race. But yeah, amazing poll for Gym.

@PhillyBol with the money on Rhynhart (Inquirer endorsement?)

I think Helen Gym has an edge on volunteers and committed voters which the polls might not catch.

statistical tie between candidates for the primary

• 18% Rhynhart

• 17% Parker

• 15% Gym

• 14% Domb

• 11% Brown

• 20% undecided

@MCMillennium I'm really not liking the idea of statistical ties. 18% vs 11% is a huge gap. Even if you replace the confidence interval with a much larger one (which makes sense as it is impossible to do a random sample).

If this poll is half-accurate, Brown is out. Of course it could be totally wrong, which is why he still has a 13% chance.

But I generally think that Brown and Domb are second tier candidates.

Hmm, Amen Brown might get a lot of fundraising. Someone is trying to organize a $5 million Super PAC for him, which, if true, is a lot of money.

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Aaron Kreider

@nextphlmayor I'm sponsoring a fake money prediction market. Join me in trying to predict who will win! https://manifold.markets/AaronKreider/who-will-win-the-2023-philadelphia

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Aaron Kreider

@Pcrawjr @nextphlmayor No polling. I'm sponsoring a fake money prediction market to try and guess the outcome. You are welcome to join! https://manifold.markets/AaronKreider/who-will-win-the-2023-philadelphia

https://twitter.com/nextphlmayor/status/1620777290975297536

https://billypenn.com/2023/01/23/helen-gym-endorsement-api-pa-philadelphia-mayor-400k/

https://whyy.org/articles/former-philadelphia-mayor-michael-nutter-2023-election/
If he enters, I might have to create a new market as he'd probably be the leading candidate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amen_Brown
Amen Brown is also likely to run.

If there is enough interest, I'll create a new market with him. That said, I think his odds of winning are close to 5%.

@AaronKreider Can I get an "Amen?"

@AaronKreider There's only room for one Brown in this race, as far as I'm concerned.

@PhillyBol Honestly, I've never heard of this guy, but I do think a Black tough-on-crime politician could get some steam in the city this year. Has he officially announced?