Will a major company develop a commercially available quantum computer by the end of 2027?
resolved May 8

Background Info:

Quantum computing is an emerging field of computer science that seeks to harness the principles of quantum mechanics, a branch of physics that deals with the behavior of particles at the atomic and subatomic levels. Quantum computers use quantum bits or "qubits" instead of the classical bits used in traditional computing. Qubits can exist in multiple states simultaneously, which allows quantum computers to perform certain types of computations much faster than classical computers.

Major companies such as IBM, Google, Intel, and Microsoft, as well as several startups, have been investing heavily in quantum computing research and development. Progress has been made in recent years, with some companies demonstrating quantum computers with a limited number of qubits and the ability to solve certain types of problems. However, building a large-scale, commercially available quantum computer remains a significant challenge due to the need for precise control of qubits and the mitigation of quantum errors.

Resolution Criteria:

For this question to resolve as "Yes," a major company (defined as a company with over 1000 employees) must develop a commercially available quantum computer by the end of 2027. A commercially available quantum computer must meet the following criteria:

  1. The quantum computer must be capable of performing general-purpose quantum computations, not limited to specific problem-solving domains.

  2. The quantum computer must be available for purchase or lease by businesses, research institutions, or other organizations for use in their operations.

  3. The quantum computer must have been developed primarily by the major company, although collaboration with other organizations or researchers is acceptable.

If no major company develops a commercially available quantum computer meeting these criteria by the end of 2027, the question will resolve as "No."

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

never mind i can't read. commercially available general purpose quantum computers exist afaik, but they're like 3 qubits

@jacksonpolack I think the criteria need to be more clear. As you mentioned there are already some quantum systems available for usage now that are "general purpose". They are in the 100s of qbit range:


Assuming nothing has changed since the last time I played it then there are some restrictions on which pairs of qbits can use c-not with each other, but I do not know if this restricts which algorithms can be run in practice, or just requires designing around the limitations.

Arguably this could already lead to a "yes" resolution, but I don't believe that is really the spirit of the market.

predicted YES

yeah. idk what the spirit of the market is though

@JoshHoover IBM access plans meet the criteria. This then resolves to Yes.