This question resolves positively if the Supreme Court decides a case that could directly affect who becomes the U.S. president as a result of the 2024 election. The Supreme Court must hear oral arguments in the case and issue a decision; a decision denying certiorari or similarly dismissing a case would not count.

In order to count, the case must have a chance of directly affecting the ultimate result of the election (i.e. the person who is ultimately elected). For example, the Supreme Court decides which group of electors from a given state are legitimate (such that the decision could affect who becomes president), decides whether a recount will occur in states that could affect the final result, or decides on whether certain ballots should be counted in a way that could affect the final result. Cases about gerrymandering or voting procedures that occur fully before the election or for which no party is asking for relief that would change the election outcome won't count toward positive resolution. Also, the decision in the case doesn't have to change the result, as long as it's recognized by credible media reports that the court could have changed the result by ruling differently.

An example of a past case that would count is Bush v. Gore. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore

Texas v. Pennsylvania would have counted had the Supreme Court eventually heard oral arguments in the case and issued a decision. Since the case was rejected by the court, it would not count. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._Pennsylvania

I will not trade in this market.