Resolves YES if at least one person who wins a 2028 Democratic or Republican presidential primary or caucus publicly supported a universal basic income between January 1, 2025 and the date of that win. Any statewide presidential preference primary or caucus in the 50 states or DC counts, whether run by the state or a state party, binding or not, sanctioned by the national party or not. A person wins by placing first among named candidates on any official statewide count (popular vote, a caucus's first or final alignment, or delegates or state delegate equivalents). If "uncommitted" or "none of these candidates" places first on a count, nobody wins that count. Otherwise it resolves NO after the last such contest.

Supported a UBI means the candidate said they favor enacting a recurring federal cash payment to all or nearly all adults with no income or work test. Names like UBI, universal high income, Freedom Dividend, or a citizen or AI dividend paid to every American all count. Saying they would enact or sign one counts, including conditionally ("if AI wipes out jobs, we should pass a UBI"). It can be in a speech, interview, debate, post or campaign platform, and a bill counts if they sponsored or cosponsored it. These don't count: saying they're open to it or that it's worth considering, praising or funding pilots, guaranteed income limited to low-income people, one-time payments (such as tariff rebate checks), and child benefits.

I'll check each primary and caucus winner's public record and link the evidence in a comment at resolution.

The opening odds are my own judgment. Trade against it.

The creator may trade in this market.

Related: a 10-country UBI forecast dashboard at maxghenis.com/ubi-forecast.

Edited 30 Sep 2026: added links to the model and dashboard; resolution criteria unchanged.