This continues my yearly series: 2023, 2024 and 2025. All three resolved NO.

Current law (tax year 2026): the CTC is up to $2,200 per child. Only $1,700 of that is refundable, and the refundable part phases in at 15% of earnings above $2,500. A family with no earnings gets only the nonrefundable part, which just offsets income tax, so a family with no income gets $0. Sources: 26 U.S.C. §24(d) and (h), as amended by P.L. 119-21, and IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32.

Resolves to the first tax year from 2026 on in which every otherwise-eligible family with no earnings or income, in that year or any earlier year, gets the maximum CTC for every qualifying child, whatever the child's age. The $500 credit for other dependents doesn't count. That was last true in 2021, when the American Rescue Plan made the credit fully refundable and removed the earnings requirement. A lookback to past earnings, or any work, job-search, training or earnings condition (even with exemptions for some families), doesn't count. A tax year counts if the law providing this for that year is enacted by April 15 of the following year (retroactive changes count). If the CTC is replaced by a successor federal child benefit, such as a monthly child allowance, judge the successor. Otherwise it resolves to "Not by tax year 2035". I'll resolve early once a qualifying law is enacted and no earlier tax year can still qualify.

Opening odds come from my own model: which party controls each Congress (from Polymarket and recent base rates) times my judgment of each Congress's chance of enacting this. Trade against it.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the enacted law's text (congress.gov) and IRS guidance.

The model's code: github.com/MaxGhenis/ubi-forecast (model/ubi_model.py). Related: a 10-country UBI dashboard at maxghenis.com/ubi-forecast.

Edited 30 Sep 2026: added links to the model and dashboard; resolution criteria unchanged.