Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?
Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?
7
10kṀ50402028
30%
chance
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I will resolve to yes if I conclude that the child tax credit, as signed into law, will give 5,000$ per child to the majority of parents. If a minority of parents will not be eligible to receive the full amount, such as because the benefit is not fully refundable or because it's not available to those with too high an income, I will still resolve to yes. But if there are enough eligibility restrictions that the I conclude that majority of parents will not be eligible to receive the full amount, I will resolve no.
I will resolve yes if the measure is signed into law, even if it doesn't go into effect before Nov 7 2028, and even if it is later blocked by the courts.
I will not bet in this market.
[ETA: if it's more than 5,000, I will still resolve yes.]
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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