This market asks about a guaranteed income floor, universal or not. A negative income tax counts here, unlike in the companion UBI market and the amount ladder.

Reference person. A single, childless, non-disabled US citizen aged 30 who lives in one of the 50 states or DC. They have no income, no assets and no work history, and are neither working nor looking for work.

Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2036 (Eastern Time), federal law as enacted entitles this person, wherever they live in the 50 states or DC, to federal cash benefits worth at least $6,000 in 2026 dollars for some calendar year, summed across all federal programs. Otherwise it resolves NO.

Counts: federal cash benefits and refundable tax credits paid in cash, whether universal or phasing out with income. Programs must be entitlements: anyone who meets the rules gets paid, with no waitlists, lotteries or appropriation caps that ration payment. Payments must be at least annual, begin within 3 years of enactment, and not be scheduled to end within 5 years of the first payment. If a program sets the amount by formula (for example, a fund's net revenue divided among recipients), use CBO's estimate at enactment for that year, or JCT's if CBO has none; if neither exists, wait for that year's actual payments, even if that means resolving after the close. The qualifying calendar year must begin within 5 years of the enactment of the last law needed.

Doesn't count: in-kind benefits (SNAP, housing, health care), state-designed or state-funded programs (including TANF and general assistance), unemployment insurance, one-time or temporary payments, and any benefit that requires work, job search or training.

Today: this person is entitled to $0 in federal cash. SSI requires age 65+, blindness or disability; the EITC requires earnings; unemployment insurance requires a work history.

Inflation. Thresholds are in 2026 dollars. Compare a payment for calendar year P with the threshold × CPI-U(P) / CPI-U(2026), using the BLS CPI-U annual average (series CUUR0000SA0). If CPI-U(P) isn't published when I resolve, grow the latest published 12-month average by CBO's latest CPI-U projection.

Opening odds come from my own Monte Carlo model: when an AI labor shock might start, which party controls each Congress, and the chance of enactment under each combination. Prediction-market prices and recent base rates set the shock-timing and party-control inputs; the enactment chances are my judgment. Trade against it.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the enacted law's text (congress.gov), CBO/JCT estimates where needed, and BLS CPI-U.