Each answer resolves independently. It resolves YES if, by December 31, 2036 (Eastern Time), the US enacts a federal universal cash payment, as defined below, of at least that amount per adult per year in 2026 dollars. Otherwise it resolves NO. A law that clears a higher threshold also clears every lower one, so the answers should be non-increasing from top to bottom. Arbitrage welcome.

The $1,000 rung would catch a recurring universal "dividend" (tariff, carbon, AI, sovereign-wealth-fund) if it's legislated as a lasting program. The $12,000 rung matches the nominal $1,000/month of Andrew Yang's 2020 Freedom Dividend, which is worth more than that in 2026 dollars.

What counts. A federal statute that becomes law (signed by the President, passed over a veto, or enacted without signature) and creates or amends a cash payment program so that it meets all five conditions:

1. Universal among adults. Every US citizen aged 18 or older who lives in the 50 states or DC is eligible, including adults someone else claims as a dependent (paying their amount to the person who claims them is fine). The only allowed exclusions are people who are incarcerated or living abroad. Covering territories and non-citizens is optional. Administrative steps (an SSN, filing a return or claim form) are fine if every such adult can still claim each year's payment; limiting it to people who filed a past return is not. Amounts may vary by age, location or anything else, as long as every eligible adult who gets no other federal benefits gets at least the threshold. Making people choose between this payment and other federal benefits, or reducing it by other federal benefits they get, doesn't disqualify it.

2. No means or work test. Every eligible adult gets the full payment during the year, whatever their income, assets, earnings, employment or job search. A tax that later recovers some or all of it from higher earners is fine, whatever it's called (surtax, reconciliation, repayment). A payment that is reduced or withheld during the year as income rises (a negative income tax) doesn't count.

3. Amount. As enacted, the law schedules at least the answer's amount per adult per year for some full calendar year that begins within 5 years of enactment. A scheduled phase-in counts once it reaches the threshold. If the law sets the amount by formula (for example, a fund's net revenue divided among recipients), use CBO's estimate at enactment for that year, or JCT's if CBO has none. If neither exists, wait for that year's actual payments, even if that means resolving after the close.

4. Recurring, lasting and mandatory. Payments come at least once a year, begin within 3 years of enactment, and are not scheduled to end within 5 years of the first payment. They must be mandatory spending (paid automatically, like Social Security), not subject to annual appropriations, waitlists or caps. One-time or temporary payments (stimulus checks, a one-off tariff or "dividend" rebate) don't count.

5. Cash. Recipients can spend it freely: direct deposit, check or debit card. In-kind benefits, vouchers, restricted or locked savings accounts, and tax credits that only offset tax don't count.

A later statute that raises, extends or otherwise amends an existing federal program so that it newly meets all five conditions also counts, dated to that statute's enactment. State and local programs don't count (so Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend doesn't). Judge each statute as enacted: a later repeal, amendment or court ruling doesn't undo a qualifying law.

Inflation. Thresholds are in 2026 dollars. Compare a payment for calendar year P with the threshold × CPI-U(P) / CPI-U(2026), using the BLS CPI-U annual average (series CUUR0000SA0). If CPI-U(P) isn't published when I resolve, grow the latest published 12-month average by CBO's latest CPI-U projection.

Companion market: When will the US enact a universal basic income of at least $500/month per adult?. The $6,000 rung here resolves YES exactly when that market resolves to 2026–2028, 2029–2032 or 2033–2036.

Opening odds come from my own Monte Carlo model: when an AI labor shock might start, which party controls each Congress, and the chance of enactment under each combination. Prediction-market prices and recent base rates set the shock-timing and party-control inputs; the enactment chances are my judgment. Trade against it.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the enacted law's text (congress.gov), CBO/JCT estimates where needed, and BLS CPI-U.