Current Position:
The highest traded answer at market close will be chosen. All other answers will resolve N/A.
The chosen answer will resolve Yes if the player who makes the move ultimately wins, No if they lose, and 50% if the game ends in a draw.
Tomorrow, a market will decide Black's move.
Answers must be legal, correctly disambiguated moves. Answers created in the final two hours of the market and edited answers are ineligible to be chosen.
Resigning and offering draws are not legal moves.
Ties (using the user view, not the api) are broken by (# yes holders - # no holders).
Who will win? https://manifold.markets/MaxE/who-will-win-futarchy-chess?r=TWF4RQ
Previous moves:
1. e4
1,000@Eliza just so everyone knows, the rules say this answer is invalid. Don't put too much on it because it will probably get N/A.
Guys we have several users already over-invested in a white win with e4 at 66%. That means they have CASH TO BLOW on rigging this one. Since only the winning answer will be chosen and all the others will N/A, they can spend the bad cash on all the answers to ensure the worst outcome for black.
REMEMBER WE HAVE USERS OVER INVESTED IN WHITE AND THEY NEED TO MAKE BLACK LOSE TO PROTECT THEIR LOCKED IN POSITIONS.
@Eliza all the evidence I'm aware of puts white e4 at roughly 52-55% so they are over invested by quite a bit. This might be a hard fight.