Will there be at least one big riot in the United States before April 15th, 2023?
16%
chance

Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in the United States, particularly among Trump's supporters who view this as a politically motivated attack on the former president.

The United States has experienced incidents of civil unrest and rioting in the past, such as the 1992 Los Angeles riots and the mass civil unrest in response to the killing of George Floyd in 2020. Given the current political climate and potential for social unrest, it is uncertain whether there will be at least one big riot in the United States before April 15th, 2023.

For the purposes of this question, a "big riot" is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions are met:

  1. At least 5 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

  2. At least 250 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

An "event of rioting" is defined as a continuous period of unrest involving a significant number of participants (at least 50 people), marked by property damage, violent confrontations with law enforcement, and/or physical altercations among participants, that:

  • Occurs within a specific geographic area, defined as an area of no more than 50 square miles (129.5 square kilometers) where the majority of the unrest activities take place, and

  • Lasts for at least 2 hours without a break of more than 30 minutes, and

  • Is primarily driven by a common political, social, or economic issue or grievance.

For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 5. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.

Arrests must be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest. Arrests made for unrelated crimes during the civil unrest period will not be counted towards the 250.

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MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

If libs didn't take all my money I would vote yes. There will be a riot on 3/25.