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MANIFOLD
Will SBF be freed from incarceration before the technological singularity?
6
Ṁ150Ṁ148
resolved Dec 23
Resolved
YES

This question resolves to YES if Sam Bankman-Fried is freed from incarceration, including being released on bail, before the start of the year during which the technological singularity begins. For the purpose of this question, the year of the technological singularity is the first year during which ANY of the following events take place:

  • In my own opinion, a radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence is deployed.

  • Yearly Gross World Product grows by over 30% year-over-year as measured from a prior peak.

  • World energy consumption grows by over 30% year-over-year as measured from a prior peak

Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

For the purpose of this question, to be "freed" from incarceration means any of the following: (1) released from custody on the basis of bail being posted, (1) released from custody while on parole, (3) released from custody because one's sentence has been served, (4) released in error, or, (5) released from custody because of a pardon, their conviction was overturned, or their sentenced was commuted. Temporary releases, such as those specified in 18 U.S. Code § 3622, do not count as being "freed" from incarceration. If SBF breaks out of jail, or otherwise leaves custody unlawfully, that will also not count.

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