Will I create at least 100 additional self-described high-quality Manifold markets before June 1st 2023?

Jun 1

86%

chance

ALL

I'm giving myself a highly aspirational goal. I want to become the top creator on Manifold Markets by the end of 2023. To me, being a top creator is not merely about how many people trade on your markets, but also a product of how many people get value from your markets, whether your questions are about important topics, and whether the questions are well-defined, with little room for ambiguity.

I intend to write many questions over the coming months about important topics. In the past, I mostly did this on Metaculus, where I currently have 270 authored questions. I will self-describe a market as "high-quality" if it is about an important topic, tracks a salient feature about the topic, and has relatively precise, unambiguous resolution criteria. Here's an example of a market I consider to be high-quality. Here's an example of a market I do NOT consider high-quality.

If I create at least 100 self-described high-quality markets on Manifold after the opening of this question and before June 1st 2023, then this question resolves to YES. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Personal Goals

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Matthew Barnett

I hope people update on the fact that I created dozens of high quality markets recently. It's really easy to do that with GPT-4 now.

Natália 🔍bought Ṁ200 of YES

I'm betting YES to incentivize myself to make Matthew create more high-quality markets.

Austinbought Ṁ50 of NO

@MatthewBarnett, I love you and your markets, but frankly "top creator on Manifold" is a highly competitive slot (including competition from yours truly) and I'm not sure you have what it takes to make it there

;)

Isaac King

@Austin None of us can ever hope to compare to Memestiny.

Carson Galebought Ṁ10 of YES

Love this - such a great goal and I'll be following your markets closely.

In case it's ever a helpful starting point in brainstorming the markets you would like to create, I have a lot of markets that I think are important but are low-quality in how they are defined/put together. You and anyone else are always welcome to recreate/refurbish my markets and improve them / make it a better experience to trade on if you ever think it makes sense (not that you ever needed my permission). I'm primarily interested in getting information on the underlying questions vs attracting traders to my markets specifically.