Will Avraham Eisenberg be found guilty at his trial in April 2024?
resolved Apr 18

Background: Avraham Eisenberg, a notable figure in cryptocurrency and prediction market communities, was arrested on allegations of financial crimes in late 2022 and subsequently denied bail. As a result, he will remain incarcerated until his trial. As of March 3, 2024, his trial is scheduled to commence on April 8, 2024.

Question: Will Avraham Eisenberg be found guilty at his April 2024 trial?

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve as "YES" if Avraham Eisenberg is found guilty on any charge against him during the first of his criminal trials that begins in, or before, April 2024. The term "guilty" refers to a legal determination made by a jury or judge in the relevant court, signifying that Eisenberg committed one or more of the crimes he is accused of.

The market will resolve as "NO" if Avraham Eisenberg is found not guilty on all charges against him in the trial. Specific conditions for the market to resolve as "YES" include:

  • Eisenberg is found guilty on any of the charges against him.

  • The trial results in a mixed verdict where Eisenberg is found guilty on some charges.

  • Eisenberg enters a plea deal or agreement that includes an admission of guilt on any charges, whether or not it results in a reduced sentence.

Additionally, if Eisenberg's trial experiences a mistrial, or is rescheduled to a date beyond April 2024, the market's resolution will resolve to N/A. If the trial is not rescheduled and does not experience a mistrial, the market will remain open until a verdict is reached.

Additional Considerations:

  • The market will not consider the outcomes of any appeals following the initial trial verdict.

  • The resolution will be based on reports from reputable media outlets and official court documents available on Court Listener or similar legal documentation services.

  • This market exclusively addresses the outcome of Avraham Eisenberg's trial for charges known as of the creation of this market and does not cover any potential future charges or legal actions unrelated to the trial scheduled for April 8, 2024.

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The trial began today.

I think something like 90% is appropriate here.