The DOJ has dropped the charges. The DOJ letter makes no bones about why. "The Justice Department has reached this conclusion without assessing the strength of the evidence[.]" "The prosecution has unduly restricted Mayor Adams' ability to devote full attention and resources to the illegal immigration [Biden caused]." Insane.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/10/politics/eric-adams-charges-dropped/index.html

Justice Department to drop federal corruption case against New York City Mayor Eric Adams | CNN Politics

The Department of Justice is moving to drop the federal corruption case against New York City Mayor Eric Adams, according to a memo obtained by CNN.

@Marnix Apparently they haven't actually dropped the charges yet, multiple people have resigned rather than drop the charges. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/13/nyregion/danielle-sassoon-quit-eric-adams.html

I still think it's likely they eventually do find someone though.

This seems quite high, what’s the conviction rate for these sorts of things? Isn’t there a decent chance they just settle for a misdemeanor charge?

@benshindel Federal conviction rates are >90%. In the most recent dataset I can find, from FY22 [0], defendants charged with "Public order - Other" offenses [1] as the most serious offense at arrest were convicted 91.4% of the time (n=5,847), with an 86.7% conviction rate for the 4.5% of whom chose to take charges to trial. The numbers are slightly better for defendants charged with ""Property - Fraud" as the most serious offense at arrest. I cannot find specific numbers for bribery cases, which should be the most difficult charge of the five Adams is facing for the government to prove, especially given recent appellate rulings in the space.

I expect the charges against Adams are much stronger than the median case, given the decision to indict the sitting mayor of a major American city, the level of detail in the indictment, and the amount of evidence obtained by prosecutors. Adams has also already said he isn't going to enter a guilty plea, so if you believe him, that takes the possibility he pleas to something lesser off the table (although I don't see why prosecutors would go for it, and certainly not for any misdemeanor). They charged him with five felonies; why do you think there is a decent chance they would "just" settle for a misdemeanor?

And that's before you even get to the fact that there's a whole other set of investigations into Adams, including 2 or 3 more in the SDNY and at least one in the EDNY.

The only thing stopping me from buying this to 95% is the lack of a scheduling order.

[0]: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/federal-justice-statistics-2022

[1]: Includes non-regulatory violations concerning tax law (tax fraud), bribery,perjury, national defense, escape, racketeering and extortion, gambling, liquor, mailing or transporting obscene materials, traffic, migratory birds, conspiracy, aiding and abetting, jurisdiction, and other offenses.

@kopecs interesting analysis!

I will not bet in this market as the outcome is subjective.

How is the outcome subjective?

@kopecs I think you’ll find that the outcomes of many markets that seem cut-and-dry turn out to be quite subjective! For this reason, I avoid betting in any of my own markets that aren’t EXTREMELY straightforward to resolve (like who will win a sports game, say)

@benshindel that being said, I will buy and sell 1 mana here to boost trader count 😆

Seems like an important market!